Rice: Production Remains Stable, Consumption Declines Steadily — Market Analysis for 2026 and Outlook for the Next 10 Years
2026 Rice Market Analysis and 10-Year Outlook: Production remains stable, consumption trends downward steadily, and quality improvement continues.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, rice yield per unit area steadily increased while total output remained broadly stable, providing robust support for national food security.Rice sown area was 43518 million mu (2901 million hectares), roughly unchanged from the previous year; yield per mu was 480 kg/mu (7200 kg/hectare), up 0.6%; total output reached 20904 million tons, an increase of 0.7%.
Rice consumption remained stable with a slight increase, driven by improved dietary patterns among residents, rising demand for rice-based products, and significant substitution of paddy rice for animal feed.Rice consumption was 20113 million tons, a year-over-year increase of 0.4%.Grain consumption was 15530 million tons, down 0.1% year over year; industrial consumption was 1770 million tons, up 1.1% year over year; feed consumption was 1650 million tons, up 4.6% year over year; and seed consumption was 130 million tons, remaining roughly flat compared to last year.
Global rice harvests are strong, ensuring ample supply and lower prices. Imported rice is now more cost-competitive, driving a significant increase in import volumes.Rice imports reached 313 million metric tons (equivalent to 447 million metric tons of paddy rice), a year-on-year increase of 88.6%; rice exports totaled 173 million metric tons (equivalent to 247 million metric tons of paddy rice), up by 56.3%.
Domestic rice prices rose initially then fell, with the annual average remaining relatively stable and slightly declining.The average purchase price of paddy rice was 2.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.8% year-over-year. The average wholesale price of rice was 4.03 yuan/kg, down 1.8% year-over-year.
Against the backdrop of the No. 1 Central Document emphasizing rational setting of minimum rice purchase prices, stable implementation of arable land fertility protection subsidies and rice subsidies, and strengthened rice insurance, rice output remained basically stable. Rice production is projected at 20802 million tons in 2026, a slight decrease of 0.5% year over year.
Rice consumption is projected at 20093 million tons, a 0.1% decline year-over-year. Food consumption accounts for 15469 million tons, down 0.4% from last year, primarily due to an aging population. Industrial consumption is estimated at 1795 million tons, up 1.2% year-over-year, driven by significant potential in the rice products sector. Feed consumption stands at 1679 million tons, rising 1.8% year-over-year, as demand for poultry increases. Seed usage remains stable at 130 million tons.
Rice imports were 304 million tons (equivalent to 434 million tons of paddy rice), a 2.9% decrease from the previous year. Exports reached 245 million tons (equivalent to 350 million tons of paddy rice), up 41.7% year-over-year, primarily due to domestic improvements and upgrades in rice varieties that are gradually meeting residents' demand for high-quality premium rice.
Rice prices in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with minor fluctuations between 2.68 and 2.90 yuan/kg (2680 and 2900 yuan/ton), supported by the minimum purchase price policy.
Over the next 10 years, rice planting area will gradually decline while yields per unit increase. Total output will initially decrease before rising again, maintaining absolute food security levels.The rice industry is entering a critical phase of structural adjustment. The proportion of high-quality rice continues to rise, while industrialization and branding deepen. Supply and demand remain comfortably balanced.Projected rice output in 2030 is 20603 million tons, a 0.8% decrease from the base period (2023—2025, average of year 3), with an annual decline of 0.2%; output in 2035 is projected at 20730 million tons, a slight 0.2% decrease from the base period.
In the long term, as the rice products industry diversifies and enhances product functionality, it will better meet consumers' differentiated needs and boost consumption levels.However, due to factors such as an aging population and a more diverse diet structure, total rice consumption is expected to gradually decline. Rice consumption for food and feed will decrease slightly, while industrial use will steadily increase.Projected consumption in 2030 is 19540 thousand tons, a 2.6% decrease from the base period.2035 annual consumption was 19400 million tons, a 3.3% decrease from the base period, with an average annual decline of 0.3%.
During the forecast period, the minimum purchase price policy and rising production costs will support rice prices. Meanwhile, improved dietary habits and a higher share of premium-quality rice—characterized by better quality commanding better prices—are expected to drive price increases. However, given the overall ample domestic supply and demand balance, price growth will remain limited.